Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Application of genetic algorithms in the design of an electrical potential of fractional order

Fractional calculus (FC) is currently being applied in many areas of science and technology. In fact, this mathematical concept helps the researches to have a deeper insight about several phenomena that integer order models overlook. Genetic algorithms (GA) are an important tool to solve optimization problems that occur in engineering. This methodology applies the concepts that describe biological evolution to obtain optimal solution in many different applications. In this line of thought, in this work we use the FC and the GA concepts to implement the electrical fractional order potential. The performance of the GA scheme, and the convergence of the resulting approximation, are analyzed. The results are analyzed for different number of charges and several fractional orders.

Implementation of fractional-order electromagnetic potential through a genetic algorithm

Several phenomena present in electrical systems motivated the development of comprehensive models based on the theory of fractional calculus (FC). Bearing these ideas in mind, in this work are applied the FC concepts to define, and to evaluate, the electrical potential of fractional order, based in a genetic algorithm optimization scheme. The feasibility and the convergence of the proposed method are evaluated.